Tulane should play this game hard believing they can get to 6 wins after last week's win over Houston on the road. The offense put up 31 points, but it was mainly due to the fact that they forced 5 turnovers. Memphis does not turn the ball over and that should keep this game under the total in my opinion. Both of these teams are run first squads who win with defense. Memphis runs the ball 58% of the time, but they are not doing it well enough at just 3.44 ypc and could have issues moving the ball. Tulane's secondary is excellent and the strength of the defense so Memphis really won't have a reason not to run the ball.

Tulane was held to less than 15 points in 5 of their last 6 games and Memphis defense is arguably one of the best it will face. Memphis shut down Ole Miss 24 points and Cincinnati to 14 on the road. It's hard to figure Tulane would get more than 10 points here yet the spread is dropping from 11 to 9 in favor of Tulane. I think we can expect a low scoring game and that's the reason the spread is dropping. Both teams have a hard time converting on 3rd down at just 36% while both red zone defenses are excellent. Tulane is only allowing 47.5% TD percentage in the red zone while 35% in conference play. Neither offense is converting above 70% in the red zone for TD% and Memphis too has had success with 41.67% red zone defense in conference play. This all leads me to believe this game will be played under 20 pts by each team.

Where to find Freddy?